Season In-Depth
Atlantic Division · 2026-27 regular season
Only 3 games into the season, so these numbers will move a lot.
45%
Playoff odds
84
Points pace
7th in the Atlantic, 10th in the Eastern. Outside the playoff spots, 1 point behind TOR. Pace = points per game over 84 games. Odds: an estimate from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected 93 points). Playoff race
How they play, from where they rank in the league. How the labels work
Based on 3 games so far, so it will change a lot early in the season.
Middle of the pack
Nothing about their game stands far out from the rest of the league, good or bad.
Points banked vs points their chances deserved, game by game. How it works
3 points · deserved 2.8
15th luckiest of 32 teams
The verdict appears after 10 games (3 played so far): before that, a couple of bounces would decide it.
2026-27 · league rank · arrows compare the last 10 games with the season
Expected goals share (xGF%)
43.2%
27th/ 32Share of 5-on-5 expected goals, which weights every shot by its chance of going in. The best single measure of who's controlling play.
Shot share (CF%)
47.1%
19th/ 32Share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts, including blocked and missed. Over 50% means you have the puck more.
High-danger chance share
44.4%
24th/ 32Share of 5-on-5 chances from the area right in front of the net, plus rebounds from the slot.
PDO (luck gauge)
101.2
14th/ 325v5 Sh% 14.6 · Sv% 86.6
5-on-5 shooting % plus save %. Around 100 is normal; well above usually means hot shooting or goaltending that won't last.
Goaltending: goals saved above expected
-4.1
28th/ 32Goals the team's goalies stopped beyond what an average goalie would, given the shots they faced. Above zero is good.
Goals for per game
4.00
7th/ 32Average goals scored per game, all situations.
Goals against per game
4.67
29th/ 32Average goals allowed per game. Lower is better.
Shots for per game
23.00
27th/ 32Shots on goal per game.
Shots against per game
30.67
27th/ 32Shots on goal allowed per game. Lower is better.
Power play
10.0%
24th/ 32Share of power plays that produce a goal.
Penalty kill
75.0%
19th/ 32Share of opponent power plays killed without a goal.
Faceoffs
53.9%
4th/ 32Share of faceoffs won.
Save percentage
.857
26th/ 32Share of shots on goal the team's goalies stopped, all situations. Empty-net goals don't count against it.
5-on-5 shooting %
14.6%
4th/ 32Share of 5-on-5 shots on goal that go in. League average is around 8%; well above or below usually evens out.
5-on-5 save %
86.6%
26th/ 32Share of 5-on-5 shots on goal the goalies stop. League average is around 92%.
Last 10 games, oldest first
Sep 29 · @ TOR
3–2W
xG 2.2–2.7
Shot share 51%
Oct 3 · @ PIT
5–6OTL
xG 3.0–2.9
Shot share 60%
Oct 6 · vs CAR
4–6L
xG 2.0–3.3
Shot share 28%
5-on-5 expected-goals share, rolling 5 games, 2026-27 · above 50% = controlling play
Wins-losses-OT/SO losses · point % · league rank by point %
| Scoring first | 0-0-1 | .500 | 17th/ 29 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Allowing the first goal | 1-1-0 | .500 | 6th/ 29 |
| Leading after the 1st | 0-1-0 | .000 | 24th/ 27 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tied after the 1st | 1-0-1 | .750 | 8th/ 17 |
| Trailing after the 1st | 0-0-0 | — |
| Leading after the 2nd | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 1st/ 26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tied after the 2nd | 0-0-0 | — | |
| Trailing after the 2nd | 0-1-1 | .250 | 8th/ 25 |
| One-goal games | 1-1-1 | .500 | 13th/ 29 |
|---|---|---|---|
| At home | 0-1-0 | .000 | 26th/ 28 |
| On the road | 1-0-1 | .750 | 8th/ 28 |
One-goal games: decided by one goal (shootouts included), or by two with an empty-net goal.
Comeback wins
0
Biggest comeback
1 goals
Won trailing after 2
0
Blown 2-goal leads
0
Lost leading after 2
0
Wins after trailing by 2+
None yet.
Losses after leading by 2+ (incl. OT and shootouts)
None yet.
Shootout goals not included
| Period | For | Against | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 5 | 4 | +1 |
| 2nd | 2 | 6 | -4 |
| 3rd | 5 | 3 | +2 |
| OT | 0 | 1 | -1 |
League rank in brackets. Hits, blocks, giveaways and takeaways are counted by arena scorekeepers and ranked by volume, not as good or bad.
| Power plays | 3.33 | 14th/ 32 |
|---|---|---|
| Power-play time | 4:42 | 25th/ 32 |
| Power-play goals for | 0.33 | 22nd/ 32 |
| Shorthanded goals against | 0.00 | 1st/ 32 |
| Times shorthanded | 4.00 | 22nd/ 32 |
| Power-play goals against | 1.00 | 20th/ 32 |
| Shorthanded goals for | 0.00 | 10th/ 32 |
| Penalties drawn minus taken | -0.3 | 17th/ 32 |
|---|---|---|
| Hits | 25.33 | 13th most |
| Blocked shots | 13.00 | 20th most |
| Giveaways | 16.33 | 18th most |
| Takeaways | 5.67 | 3rd most |
Share of their expected goals (and goals) by shot type and strength, against the league average. 12 goals from 7.2 expected, empty-net shots left out.
Shot type
Canadiens: 42.4% of expected goals and 41.7% of goals; league average 37.5% of expected goals.
Canadiens: 23.6% of expected goals and 33.3% of goals; league average 33.1% of expected goals.
Canadiens: 4.6% of expected goals and 0.0% of goals; league average 7.3% of expected goals.
Canadiens: 19.1% of expected goals and 0.0% of goals; league average 11.9% of expected goals.
Canadiens: 5.6% of expected goals and 16.7% of goals; league average 8.8% of expected goals.
Canadiens: 4.6% of expected goals and 8.3% of goals; league average 1.4% of expected goals.
Strength
Canadiens: 72.8% of expected goals and 83.3% of goals; league average 69.4% of expected goals.
Canadiens: 16.1% of expected goals and 8.3% of goals; league average 24.2% of expected goals.
Canadiens: 3.4% of expected goals and 0.0% of goals; league average 2.9% of expected goals.
Canadiens: 7.6% of expected goals and 8.3% of goals; league average 3.6% of expected goals.
Rebound: a shot within 3 seconds of a teammate's shot on goal. There's no “off the rush” split: the NHL's play-by-play doesn't record rushes or breakaways, so we can't count them reliably.
Shaded areas are where the Canadiens create or allow more dangerous chances than an average NHL team, 2026-27. Darker = further above average; blank = average or below. Net at the top.
Goals plus first assists: who drives the scoring, rather than collecting second assists. Why primary points
| # | Player | GP | P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick SuzukiC2 G, 3 first assists | 3 | 5 |
| 2 | Chris KreiderL1 G, 3 first assists | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Zachary BolducR3 G, 0 first assists | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Cole CaufieldR2 G, 0 first assists | 3 | 2 |
| 5 | Alexandre CarrierD1 G, 1 first assist | 3 | 2 |
2026-27 · top 10 by individual expected goals (ixG), all situations
| # | Player | GP | G | P | SOG | ixG | HD | G−ixG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juraj SlafkovskýL | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1.1 | 2 | -0.1 |
| 2 | Nick SuzukiC | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0.8 | 1 | +1.2 |
| 3 | Josh AndersonR | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0.7 | 3 | +0.3 |
| 4 | Chris KreiderL | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.7 | 6 | +0.3 |
| 5 | Alexandre CarrierD | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 | +0.3 |
| 6 | Zachary BolducR | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0.7 | 5 | +2.3 |
| 7 | Cole CaufieldR | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0.6 | 1 | +1.4 |
| 8 | Phillip DanaultC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| 9 | Jake EvansC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 2 | -0.5 |
| 10 | Noah DobsonD | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | -0.5 |
2026-27 · everyone on the roster
Canadiens
| Goalie | GP | SV% | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes | 3 | .857 | -4.1 |
| Samuel Montembeault | 0 | — | — |
A start is the game where he faced the first shot. Quality and really bad starts are shares of his starts, so a busy starter isn't punished for starting more. Quality starts, really bad starts and stolen games explained
| Goalie | GS | QS | QS% | RBS | RBS% | Stolen | HDSV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes3 starts · 33% quality · 67% really bad (2) | 3 | 1 | 33.3 | 2 | 66.7 | 0 | .710 |
Wins where the goalie saved 2 or more goals above expected, and at least the winning margin: without him, they probably lose
None yet this season.