Season In-Depth
Atlantic Division · 2026-27 regular season
Only 4 games into the season, so these numbers will move a lot.
45%
Playoff odds
84
Points pace
5th in the Atlantic, 8th in the Eastern. Holding a playoff spot (Wild card 2), 0 points ahead of BOS. Pace = points per game over 84 games. Odds: an estimate from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season (projected 92 points). Playoff race
How they play, from where they rank in the league. How the labels work
Based on 4 games so far, so it will change a lot early in the season.
Goalie carrying them
Their goaltending is stopping far more than an average goalie would behind a defence that gives up a lot.
Labels they fit, strongest first
Points banked vs points their chances deserved, game by game. How it works
4 points · deserved 4.1
19th luckiest of 32 teams
The verdict appears after 10 games (4 played so far): before that, a couple of bounces would decide it.
2026-27 · league rank · arrows compare the last 10 games with the season
Expected goals share (xGF%)
49.8%
17th/ 32Share of 5-on-5 expected goals, which weights every shot by its chance of going in. The best single measure of who's controlling play.
Shot share (CF%)
53.3%
12th/ 32Share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts, including blocked and missed. Over 50% means you have the puck more.
High-danger chance share
54.7%
10th/ 32Share of 5-on-5 chances from the area right in front of the net, plus rebounds from the slot.
PDO (luck gauge)
96.2
25th/ 325v5 Sh% 7.6 · Sv% 88.6
5-on-5 shooting % plus save %. Around 100 is normal; well above usually means hot shooting or goaltending that won't last.
Goaltending: goals saved above expected
+2.1
8th/ 32Goals the team's goalies stopped beyond what an average goalie would, given the shots they faced. Above zero is good.
Goals for per game
2.75
20th/ 32Average goals scored per game, all situations.
Goals against per game
2.75
16th/ 32Average goals allowed per game. Lower is better.
Shots for per game
30.00
11th/ 32Shots on goal per game.
Shots against per game
26.25
13th/ 32Shots on goal allowed per game. Lower is better.
Power play
21.4%
17th/ 32Share of power plays that produce a goal.
Penalty kill
90.9%
5th/ 32Share of opponent power plays killed without a goal.
Faceoffs
51.1%
13th/ 32Share of faceoffs won.
Save percentage
.895
20th/ 32Share of shots on goal the team's goalies stopped, all situations. Empty-net goals don't count against it.
5-on-5 shooting %
7.6%
22nd/ 32Share of 5-on-5 shots on goal that go in. League average is around 8%; well above or below usually evens out.
5-on-5 save %
88.6%
21st/ 32Share of 5-on-5 shots on goal the goalies stop. League average is around 92%.
Last 10 games, oldest first
Sep 29 · vs MTL
2–3L
xG 2.7–2.2
Shot share 49%
Sep 30 · vs NYI
2–1W
xG 2.4–3.0
Shot share 41%
Oct 3 · vs OTT
2–3L
xG 3.2–4.8
Shot share 61%
Oct 6 · vs NSH
5–4W
xG 4.2–3.2
Shot share 60%
5-on-5 expected-goals share, rolling 5 games, 2026-27 · above 50% = controlling play
Wins-losses-OT/SO losses · point % · league rank by point %
| Scoring first | 1-1-0 | .500 | 17th/ 29 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Allowing the first goal | 1-1-0 | .500 | 6th/ 29 |
| Leading after the 1st | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 1st/ 27 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tied after the 1st | 0-1-0 | .000 | 15th/ 17 |
| Trailing after the 1st | 1-1-0 | .500 | 4th/ 26 |
| Leading after the 2nd | 1-0-0 | 1.000 | 1st/ 26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tied after the 2nd | 0-1-0 | .000 | 10th/ 13 |
| Trailing after the 2nd | 1-1-0 | .500 | 3rd/ 25 |
| One-goal games | 2-2-0 | .500 | 13th/ 29 |
|---|---|---|---|
| At home | 2-2-0 | .500 | 12th/ 28 |
| On the road | 0-0-0 | — |
One-goal games: decided by one goal (shootouts included), or by two with an empty-net goal.
Comeback wins
1
Biggest comeback
3 goals
Won trailing after 2
1
Blown 2-goal leads
0
Lost leading after 2
0
Wins after trailing by 2+
Losses after leading by 2+ (incl. OT and shootouts)
None yet.
Shootout goals not included
| Period | For | Against | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 3 | 4 | -1 |
| 2nd | 5 | 4 | +1 |
| 3rd | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| OT | 1 | 0 | +1 |
League rank in brackets. Hits, blocks, giveaways and takeaways are counted by arena scorekeepers and ranked by volume, not as good or bad.
| Power plays | 3.50 | 13th/ 32 |
|---|---|---|
| Power-play time | 6:58 | 9th/ 32 |
| Power-play goals for | 0.75 | 13th/ 32 |
| Shorthanded goals against | 0.25 | 23rd/ 32 |
| Times shorthanded | 2.75 | 6th/ 32 |
| Power-play goals against | 0.25 | 4th/ 32 |
| Shorthanded goals for | 0.00 | 10th/ 32 |
| Penalties drawn minus taken | +0.5 | 8th/ 32 |
|---|---|---|
| Hits | 20.00 | 24th most |
| Blocked shots | 14.00 | 17th most |
| Giveaways | 17.25 | 16th most |
| Takeaways | 3.75 | 20th most |
Share of their expected goals (and goals) by shot type and strength, against the league average. 11 goals from 12.6 expected, empty-net shots left out.
Shot type
Maple Leafs: 60.6% of expected goals and 72.7% of goals; league average 37.5% of expected goals.
Maple Leafs: 5.3% of expected goals and 0.0% of goals; league average 33.1% of expected goals.
Maple Leafs: 9.6% of expected goals and 0.0% of goals; league average 7.3% of expected goals.
Maple Leafs: 12.2% of expected goals and 18.2% of goals; league average 11.9% of expected goals.
Maple Leafs: 10.4% of expected goals and 9.1% of goals; league average 8.8% of expected goals.
Maple Leafs: 1.8% of expected goals and 0.0% of goals; league average 1.4% of expected goals.
Strength
Maple Leafs: 69.4% of expected goals and 63.6% of goals; league average 69.4% of expected goals.
Maple Leafs: 23.6% of expected goals and 27.3% of goals; league average 24.2% of expected goals.
Maple Leafs: 0.0% of expected goals and 0.0% of goals; league average 2.9% of expected goals.
Maple Leafs: 7.0% of expected goals and 9.1% of goals; league average 3.6% of expected goals.
Rebound: a shot within 3 seconds of a teammate's shot on goal. There's no “off the rush” split: the NHL's play-by-play doesn't record rushes or breakaways, so we can't count them reliably.
Shaded areas are where the Maple Leafs create or allow more dangerous chances than an average NHL team, 2026-27. Darker = further above average; blank = average or below. Net at the top.
Goals plus first assists: who drives the scoring, rather than collecting second assists. Why primary points
| # | Player | GP | P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auston MatthewsC2 G, 3 first assists | 4 | 5 |
| 2 | William NylanderR3 G, 1 first assist | 4 | 4 |
| 3 | Jack RoslovicC1 G, 1 first assist | 4 | 2 |
| 4 | Easton CowanR1 G, 1 first assist | 4 | 2 |
| 5 | Gavin McKennaL1 G, 1 first assist | 4 | 2 |
2026-27 · top 10 by individual expected goals (ixG), all situations
| # | Player | GP | G | P | SOG | ixG | HD | G−ixG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William NylanderR | 4 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 2.1 | 6 | +0.9 |
| 2 | John TavaresC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 2.0 | 11 | -1.0 |
| 3 | Kirill MarchenkoR | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1.7 | 7 | -0.7 |
| 4 | Auston MatthewsC | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 1.6 | 7 | +0.4 |
| 5 | Jack RoslovicC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0.9 | 3 | +0.1 |
| 6 | Colton SissonsC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0.9 | 9 | +0.1 |
| 7 | Easton CowanR | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0.7 | 2 | +0.3 |
| 8 | Nick PaulL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.6 | 4 | -0.6 |
| 9 | Darren RaddyshD | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0.6 | 2 | -0.6 |
| 10 | Gavin McKennaL | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0.6 | 4 | +0.4 |
2026-27 · everyone on the roster
Maple Leafs
| Goalie | GP | SV% | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | 2 | .904 | +1.2 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | 2 | .887 | +0.9 |
A start is the game where he faced the first shot. Quality and really bad starts are shares of his starts, so a busy starter isn't punished for starting more. Quality starts, really bad starts and stolen games explained
| Goalie | GS | QS | QS% | RBS | RBS% | Stolen | HDSV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky2 starts · 50% quality · 0% really bad (0) | 2 | 1 | 50.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | .722 |
| Anthony Stolarz2 starts · 50% quality · 50% really bad (1) | 2 | 1 | 50.0 | 1 | 50.0 | 0 | .750 |
Wins where the goalie saved 2 or more goals above expected, and at least the winning margin: without him, they probably lose
None yet this season.