45%
Playoff odds
84
Points pace
Holding a playoff spot (Wild card 2), 0 points ahead of BOS. The magic number appears at the season's midpoint.
Odds and magic number are estimates. Odds come from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season; this early they move a lot from game to game. Playoff race
Next game
@ Vegas Golden Knights
Thursday, October 8 · 10:00 p.m. ET TSN4
Playoff odds after Thursday's gameWin → 48%OT loss → 45%Loss → 42%
First of 2 meetings
2026-27 · shares are 5-on-5 · pace = 5-on-5 shot attempts per 60 by both teams, 1st = fastest · speed bursts = times any player tops 20 mph, per game (NHL EDGE, ranked per game by us)
Expected goals share
Shot share
High-danger chance share
Goals for per game
Goals against per game
Power play
Penalty kill
Pace of play
Speed bursts per game
Offensive-zone time
Longer bar = better league rank, so every row reads the same way (for goals against, fewer is better).
5-on-5 expected-goals share, rolling 5 games, over each club's last 10 (the same line as the season trend) · above 50% = controlling play
Shaded areas are where each team creates or allows more dangerous chances than an average NHL team, 2026-27. Darker = further above average; blank = average or below. Net at the top.
2026-27 numbers for every goalie on both rosters. Starters aren't announced until game day.
Maple Leafs
| Goalie | GP | SV% | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | 2 | .904 | +1.2 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | 2 | .887 | +0.9 |
Golden Knights
| Goalie | GP | SV% | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart | 3 | .890 | -1.4 |
| Adin Hill | 1 | .900 | -0.5 |
Tue, Oct 6 · @ Maple Leafs
4–5OTLOT
Maple Leafs beat the Predators 5–4 in overtime and earned it, out-chancing them 4.2–3.2 in expected goals and 19–13 in high-danger chances.
Top Maple Leafs ratings
Last 10 games, oldest first
Sep 29 · vs MTL
2–3L
xG 2.7–2.2
Shot share 49%
Sep 30 · vs NYI
2–1W
xG 2.4–3.0
Shot share 41%
Oct 3 · vs OTT
2–3L
xG 3.2–4.8
Shot share 61%
Oct 6 · vs NSH
5–4W
xG 4.2–3.2
Shot share 60%
5-on-5 expected-goals share, rolling 5 games, 2026-27 · above 50% = controlling play
Best single-game ratings out of 10 · Game Score in brackets · How ratings work
Auston Matthews (3.44)
1 G · 3 A · 4 SOG
William Nylander (2.62)
1 G · 2 A · 1 SOG
Gavin McKenna (2.25)
1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG
Jack Roslovic (1.93)
1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG
Easton Cowan (1.87)
1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG
2026-27 · league rank · arrows compare the last 10 games with the season
Only 4 games into the season, so these numbers will move a lot.
Expected goals share (xGF%)
49.8%
17th/ 32Share of 5-on-5 expected goals, which weights every shot by its chance of going in. The best single measure of who's controlling play.
Shot share (CF%)
53.3%
12th/ 32Share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts, including blocked and missed. Over 50% means you have the puck more.
High-danger chance share
54.7%
10th/ 32Share of 5-on-5 chances from the area right in front of the net, plus rebounds from the slot.
PDO (luck gauge)
96.2
25th/ 325v5 Sh% 7.6 · Sv% 88.6
Luck4 pts · deserved 4.15-on-5 shooting % plus save %. Around 100 is normal; well above usually means hot shooting or goaltending that won't last.
Goaltending: goals saved above expected
+2.1
8th/ 32Goals the team's goalies stopped beyond what an average goalie would, given the shots they faced. Above zero is good.
Goals for per game
2.75
20th/ 32Average goals scored per game, all situations.
Goals against per game
2.75
16th/ 32Average goals allowed per game. Lower is better.
Shots for per game
30.00
11th/ 32Shots on goal per game.
Shots against per game
26.25
13th/ 32Shots on goal allowed per game. Lower is better.
Power play
21.4%
17th/ 32Share of power plays that produce a goal.
Penalty kill
90.9%
5th/ 32Share of opponent power plays killed without a goal.
Faceoffs
51.1%
13th/ 32Share of faceoffs won.
Save percentage
.895
20th/ 32Share of shots on goal the team's goalies stopped, all situations. Empty-net goals don't count against it.
Based on 4 games so far
Goalie carrying them
Their goaltending is stopping far more than an average goalie would behind a defence that gives up a lot.
2026-27
2026-27 · goals · shots on goal
2026-27 · assists · points
2026-27 · average rating out of 10, skaters with 2+ games · What's this?
2026-27 · individual xG · goals · high-danger chances
2026-27 · save % · goals saved above expected
2026-27 · late tying and go-ahead goals, OT winners · What's this?
1 OT winner · 7th in the NHL
1 clutch assist · 22nd in the NHL
2026-27 shooting % against each player's NHL career · goals above or below his career rate · What's this?
Running hot
33.3% this season · 13.5% career
14.3% this season · 12.0% career
12.5% this season · 11.5% career
Due
7.1% this season · 13.3% career
0.0% this season · 7.8% career
8.3% this season · 13.6% career
Only 4 games into the season, so these numbers will move a lot.
Every Maple Leafs shooter, with career chartsActive runs, regular season: point streaks of 3+ games and goal streaks of 2+; droughts among players with 10+ games.
On a roll
Droughts
Puck and player tracking, this season · league rank · tap a tile marked “See every player” for the whole roster
Speed bursts over 22 mph, per game
1.3
9th/ 32Distance skated
181.5 mi
8th/ 32League avg 148.0 mi
Shots over 90 mph
8
1st/ 32Offensive-zone time
40.6%
18th/ 32League avg 40.4%
Defensive-zone time
40.6%
15th/ 32Lower is better; rank 1 = least time defending